New Zealand Christmas 2025 Travel Boom Forecast by Air New Zealand Across Australia, the Pacific Islands, and the United States

Published on December 17, 2025

A significant surge in festive season travel across New Zealand, Australia, the Pacific Islands, and the United States has been forecast as Air New Zealand prepares for one of its busiest holiday periods on record during Christmas 2025. Strong demand across both domestic and international networks has been identified, with millions of passengers expected to travel for leisure, family reunions, and seasonal holidays. The peak summer period in Aotearoa has traditionally been associated with increased aviation activity, and this year the trend has been reinforced by sustained consumer confidence and stable capacity across key routes. According to the airline’s latest outlook, travel volumes are set to rise steadily through late December and early January, placing pressure on major airports and tourism hubs nationwide. The outlook has been shaped by booking data, historical travel patterns, and continued interest in sun focused and long haul destinations. With Air New Zealand positioned at the center of this movement, the festive travel season has been framed as a critical period for the wider travel and tourism sector in New Zealand, while also highlighting the country’s strong connectivity with Australia, the Pacific Islands, and the United States. Careful planning and preparedness have therefore been emphasized as essential elements of a smooth holiday journey.

Rising Festive Travel Demand Across New Zealand

A sharp increase in seasonal travel demand has been outlined as the Christmas and New Year period approaches in New Zealand. Millions of journeys have been projected across domestic and international networks, reflecting strong enthusiasm for end of year travel. The summer holiday period has long been regarded as a peak window for aviation activity in the country, and the latest forecasts suggest that this tradition will continue at an even greater scale in 2025.

Passenger flows have been expected to build gradually from mid December, reaching their highest levels just before Christmas Day and again in early January. This sustained rise has been attributed to leisure focused travel, school holidays, and increased movement between major cities and regional destinations.

Key Airports Preparing for Heavy Passenger Volumes

Major gateways across New Zealand have been identified as focal points for the anticipated surge in traffic. Auckland Airport AKL, Queenstown Airport ZQN, and Wellington Airport WLG have been forecast to experience particularly heavy passenger flows during the festive season.

These airports have been positioned as critical hubs for both domestic and international connections, serving travelers heading to holiday destinations as well as those departing for overseas travel. Operational readiness has therefore been emphasized, with airport facilities expected to operate close to peak capacity throughout late December and early January.

Domestic Network Sees Strong South Island Demand

Approximately 1.6 million passengers have been expected to travel on the domestic network during the holiday period. Strong demand has been observed for South Island destinations, reinforcing their continued popularity within New Zealand tourism.

Queenstown has been projected to handle around 260,000 arriving and departing passengers, maintaining its position as the country’s leading leisure destination. The town’s appeal as a hub for adventure tourism, scenic experiences, and luxury travel has continued to attract high volumes of domestic travelers.

Nelson has been forecast to welcome approximately 150,000 passengers, driven by interest in coastal escapes and outdoor activities. Dunedin has also been highlighted, with around 110,000 travelers expected to pass through its airport during the same period. These figures have underscored the strong role of regional tourism in supporting the wider domestic travel market.

Busiest Domestic Travel Days Identified

Specific peak days have been identified within the domestic network, allowing travelers to plan journeys more effectively. Friday, December 19, has been forecast as the busiest domestic travel day, with up to 32,000 passengers expected to fly nationwide.

High volumes have also been anticipated on December 21, 22, and 23, with roughly 31,000 passengers forecast on each of these days. These peaks have been linked to pre Christmas departures as families and holidaymakers travel to their chosen destinations ahead of the festive celebrations.

International Travel Shows Strong Performance

On international routes, approximately 1.1 million passengers have been forecast to travel to and from New Zealand during the holiday period. Short haul services across the Tasman Sea have continued to dominate international demand, supported by consistent leisure travel and visits to friends and relatives.

Routes linking New Zealand with Australia have been identified as the strongest performers, reflecting close cultural, economic, and tourism ties between the two countries. The festive season has traditionally seen heavy trans Tasman traffic, and 2025 has been projected to follow this established pattern.

Australia Leads International Destination Rankings

Sydney Airport SYD has been forecast to lead international demand, with around 195,000 passengers expected to travel on services connecting New Zealand and Australia. Melbourne Airport MEL has followed closely, with approximately 185,000 travelers projected during the same period.

Brisbane Airport BNE has also been highlighted as a busy gateway, with around 120,000 passengers expected. These figures have reinforced the central role of Australia as the primary international market for New Zealand travelers during the holiday season.

Pacific Islands Remain Popular Sun Destinations

Strong interest in Pacific island destinations has continued to shape international travel trends. An estimated 170,000 passengers have been expected to travel to sun focused routes such as Fiji and Tahiti during the festive period.

The appeal of warm climates, resort experiences, and relaxed holiday environments has sustained demand for these destinations. The Pacific Islands have therefore remained a key pillar of New Zealand’s international leisure travel market during Christmas and New Year.

Long Haul Routes Maintain Resilience

Long haul travel has also shown resilience, despite higher travel times and increased planning requirements. Los Angeles International Airport LAX has been forecast to handle around 56,000 passengers traveling to and from New Zealand during the holiday period.

This steady demand has highlighted the enduring importance of the United States as a long haul market, supporting tourism, business travel, and onward connections to other global destinations.

Peak International Travel Days and Passenger Advice

Saturday, December 20, and Saturday, January 3, have been identified as the busiest days for international travel. On each of these days, up to 20,000 passengers have been expected to pass through international terminals across New Zealand.

With facilities operating near capacity, travelers have been advised to plan journeys carefully. Online check in has been recommended where available, along with early arrival at airports. Additional time has been advised for families, oversized baggage, and passengers requiring special assistance.

Passengers have also been reminded to review aviation safety guidelines before packing gifts, as certain items may be restricted in carry on or checked baggage. Pre travel checks have therefore been emphasized as essential during the holiday rush.

Bottom Line: A Strong Outlook for Travel and Tourism

The latest outlook from Air New Zealand has highlighted a robust rebound in holiday travel across domestic and international markets. Clearly defined peak travel days, combined with sustained demand for leisure destinations in New Zealand, Australia, the Pacific Islands, and the United States, have pointed to a highly active festive season.

Busy terminals have been expected throughout late December and early January, reinforcing the importance of preparation and awareness. For the travel and tourism sector, the Christmas 2025 period has been positioned as a strong indicator of ongoing recovery and growth, supported by confident travelers and enduring destination appeal.